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This is what our ranking would have said BEFORE signing day — next to the real signing bonuses. The comparison speaks for itself.
6/10
Model top-10 in real top-10
6/10
Model top-10 in real top-15%
0.53
Order correlation (Spearman)
51
Prospects analyzed
Our ranking measures TALENT (a scout grade and tool projection). The signing bonus measures the MARKET (who negotiated best, team pool, prior agreements). Where they diverge, there is a story — not an error. Asian pro signings are excluded.
These are the grades at signing. See how they are doing now on MLB Pipeline
